By Lee Pfeiffer
Here we go again. In the past, I've had a fairly good record of predicting Oscar winners...Let's see if the trend holds. Last week, I helped to host an annual Oscar prediction event at New York's legendary private club The Coffee House. I went against the popular consensus on some predictions, so let's see if my well-thought out analysis (to which I devoted about 30 seconds) will pay off this year, as well.
BEST PICTURE: Argo. Everyone is saying Argo. They may be right. Academy voters were humiliated that Ben Affleck failed to secure a nomination for Best Director, so they may try to atone by giving the film Best Picture. (It was the directors who snubbed Affleck but all Academy members can vote for Best Picture). However, it would be only the third time in Oscar history that a Best Picture award went to a film for which its director was not nominated. (The others were Wings, Grand Hotel and Driving Miss Daisy.) As of this morning I was still thinkin' Lincoln, but I now think Argo will pull it off...and voters can console Spielberg by giving him the Best Director nod.
BEST DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg. It's probably between Steven Spielberg for Lincoln and David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, a fine but over-rated flick that built in momentum during the crucial voting period. I'll go with Spielberg, however, because his track record has been pretty checkered in recent years and the Academy would like to re-inspire him to strive for meaningful projects such as Lincoln, a film that proved he still has the old mojo.
BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook. It's a remarkable performance by a 22-year-old actress who was still in high school when the movie was first put into development.
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day Lewis for Lincoln is the odds-on favorite and I'm sticking with him, though Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings could be a dark horse winner.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook. One of the toughest categories to call. Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained is probably out of the picture, having recently won for another Tarantino flick. Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master might stand a chance as an upset win, but few people saw the movie. Tommy Lee Jones was great in Lincoln, but he's grouchy and turns off Academy voters. Alan Arkin was great in Argo but he won the award a few years ago. That leaves Robert De Niro, who I believe will win. My friend, actor Simon Jones who hosted the Oscar event at the Coffee House with me, said disparagingly "De Niro was acting, alright- with a capital "A"!" To some De Niro was trying too hard to make up for a string of low-end movies he did for a fast paycheck. But I enjoyed his performance and I think the Academy will want to inspire him (as with Spielberg) to use his talents for worthy projects.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Michael Haneke for Amour. The screenplay categories always feature the quirkiest winners. Tarantino might be a favorite but many voters would have been turned off by the sheer violence of Django Unchained. Mark Boal's screenplay for Zero Dark Thirty has been compromised by political controversies and criticisms about artistic license. John Gatins for Flight might be deserving but is still a long-shot and perpetually overrated Wes Anderson (with Roman Coppola) probably don't stand a chance for Moonrise Kingdom.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. Almost impossible to call this highly competitive category. Tony Kushner's screenplay for Lincoln is a strong contender, but it has also been embroiled in controversy about accuracy, though most of that surfaced after the votes were in. I think they'll give it to Russell because Silver Linings is a feel-good, uplifting movie and they will want to afford him a consolation prize for not giving him Best Dirctor.
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Life of Pi
SOUND MIXING: Les Miserables
SOUND EDITING: The Life of Pi
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Lincoln
SCORE: John Williams for Lincoln
MAKEUP: The Hobbit
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Amour
FILM EDITING: Argo
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Searching for Sugar Man
COSTUME DESIGN: Les Miserables
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Lincoln
ANIMATED FEATURE: Frankenweenie
BEST SONG: Skyfall
I have to say I have feeling I'm going to bomb out this year...too many categories are crap shoots but that should make for a suspenseful and fun Oscar night. Will check in the day after to see how I fared.